One more thing to consider. For UEFA teams if you win one of the 12 groups, you go straight to the World Cup and are in Pot 1 or 2 for the draw.
If you come in 2nd, you got to win two UEFA playoff games where bounced have to go your way and you will be in Pot 4 for the draw.
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In World Cup 2026, Pot 4 will consist of the 6 lowest ranked teams already qualified, the 2 inter-continental playoff qualifiers, and the 4 UEFA playoff qualifiers. These playoff qualifiers will not be known at the time of the draw
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It's a tough road ahead for Italy. They may need to win all remaining games and get to 21 points.