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Two days after the latest in a string of test-flight setbacks for his big new Mars spacecraft, Starship, Elon Musk said on Thursday he foresees the futuristic vehicle making its first uncrewed voyage to the red planet at the end of next year.
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https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...c2bc0001fdf102
It's kinda hilarious how he just can't help himself at all. Starship hasn't even reached orbit yet, but by next year they'll have a reliable vehicle, capable of multiple launches to achieve the in-space refuelling that has never been achieved or tested by anybody, do that 10 or so times, and have his janky remote controlled robots fly the thing to Mars autonomously. And he gives that a 50-50 chance of happening.
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The first flight to Mars would carry a simulated crew consisting of one or more robots of the Tesla-built humanoid Optimus design, with the first human crews following in the second or third landings. Musk said he envisioned eventually launching 1,000 to 2,000 ships to Mars every two years to quickly establish a self-sustaining permanent human settlement.
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So 500 ships a year will require ~5000 launches for fuel. That's over 13 a day. Even at half that, it's silly.