Quote:
Originally Posted by PepsiFree
The requirement of luck is really no different than it is for any other team.
Not even #1 overalls are surefire star level core players. If you expect the impossible you’re just trying to disappoint yourself.
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I show from 2004-2018 that 46% of players drafted 1OV not only are 1st liners but Hall of famers/Cup Winners or guys that are in the Hart, Art Ross or Rocket Richard race annually.
Crosby
Ovechkin
McDavid
MacKinnon
Matthews
Stamkos
Kane
7 out of 15 and you still have
Tavares
Dahlin
Hall
Nuge
Hischier
Ekblad
I would say at least 10 are #1 guys that can be massive parts of winning a cup.
2OV is very similar.
It's once you get to 3OV that the odds go way down and trading players just to tank and missing the top 2 picks that it really gets questionable if it's worth it.
But tanking by trading Kadri, Coleman and Rasmus IMO makes the most sense. Get assets even if they are middling and increase our odds of drafting a star if we dip down far enough to pick in the top 5.
Also adding bullets in the draft helps. Odds of getting 2 top 6 forwards, top 4 d or a #1 goalie when you have 9+ picks in a draft past the top 5 vs 5 or less is
My data is not complete, but I show the following for 2004 -2018 (Anaheim, Boston, Buffalo, Calgary and Carolina completed)
Teams with a draft of 9+ - 5 drafts and 7 players draft that meet the above criteria
6-8 picks - 33 drafts and 22 players that meet the criteria
5 or less picks - 14 drafts and 9 players that meet the criteria
Teams that have extra picks rarely go the entire draft without at least 1 impact player selected vs 5 or less picks the odds of completely striking out are high.