Indulge me if you will, as I had been a little disappointed that the Flames' second pick in the first round has now moved to 29-32 (likely 32). I took a look at the last 10 drafts, and included 2024 as well because its so fresh in my mind still. The data, to me, does not show any correlation in value difference between 22-32, and its a pretty mixed bag in general. 2 conclusions, I think, is that there are players to be had in this range, but few superstars (as expected), but very little difference in whether they can be found at the top end of the range vs the bottom. (2015 being the best example of a "top heavy" grouping at the top of the range. The other, being that there is typically on average 1-2 top 6 forwards/top 4 d taken in this range per draft.
This is obviously a pretty surface-level analysis, and so many other factors are at play, including the often overlooked role in player development after drafting. Its one thing to scout and draft the best players, and another to develop them properly to reach full potential (this is a role that the player must embrace as well as the team being adept at it). I think the Flames have done a pretty good job showing that they may be in the upper tier in both categories, so while I think that finding a way to get into the top 8-12 in this draft is still likely a good strategy to target a more top-end potential center, I'm also more confident that the Flames have a decent likelyhood of getting at least 1 top 6 C in this draft, and the difference in their success may not be tied to the pick dropping from 22 to 32.
2014 GP PTS Last Season
1 22 Kasperi Kapanen 527 222 2024-25
1 23 Conner Bleackley
1 24 Jared McCann 668 398 2024-25
1 25 David Pastrnak 756 833 2024-25
1 26 Nikita Scherbak 37 8 2018-19
1 27 Nikolay Goldobin 125 46 2019-20
1 28 Josh Ho-Sang 53 24 2018-19
1 29 Adrian Kempe 630 401 2024-25
1 30 John Quenneville 42 5 2019-20
2 31 Brendan Lemieux 307 74 2023-24
2 32 Jayce Hawryluk 98 27 2020-21
2015
1 22 Ilya Samsonov 200 5 2024-25
1 23 Brock Boeser 554 434 2024-25
1 24 Travis Konecny 646 476 2024-25
1 25 Jack Roslovic 526 260 2024-25
1 26 Noah Juulsen 157 17 2024-25
1 27 Jacob Larsson 172 24 2022-23
1 28 Anthony Beauvillier 631 271 2024-25
1 29 Gabriel Carlsson 81 18 2022-23
1 30 Nick Merkley 41 15 2021-22
2 31 Jeremy Roy
2 32 Christian Fischer 523 137 2024-25
2016
1 22 German Rubtsov 4 0 2019-20
1 23 Henrik Borgstrom 111 26 2022-23
1 24 Max Jones 284 64 2024-25
1 25 Riley Tufte 24 3 2024-25
1 26 Tage Thompson 448 325 2024-25
1 27 Brett Howden 431 141 2024-25
1 28 Lucas Johansen 9 2 2023-24
1 29 Trent Frederic 338 109 2024-25
1 30 Sam Steel 418 142 2024-25
2 31 Egor Korshkov 1 1 2019-20
2 32 Tyler Benson 38 3 2022-23
2017
1 22 Kailer Yamamoto 315 137 2024-25
1 23 Pierre-Olivier Joseph 194 40 2024-25
1 24 Kristian Vesalainen 70 5 2021-22
1 25 Ryan Poehling 283 95 2024-25
1 26 Jake Oettinger 251 5 2024-25
1 27 Morgan Frost 310 147 2024-25
1 28 Shane Bowers 13 0 2024-25
1 29 Henri Jokiharju 407 97 2024-25
1 30 Eeli Tolvanen 345 154 2024-25
1 31 Klim Kostin 190 53 2024-25
2 32 Conor Timmins 159 46 2024-25
2018
1 22 K'Andre Miller 368 132 2024-25
1 23 Isac Lundestrom 337 84 2024-25
1 24 Filip Johansson
1 25 Dominik Bokk
1 26 J. Bernard-Docker 144 24 2024-25
1 27 Nicolas Beaudin 22 6 2021-22
1 28 Nils Lundkvist 183 44 2024-25
1 29 Rasmus Sandin 309 116 2024-25
1 30 Joe Veleno 306 81 2024-25
1 31 Alexander Alexeyev 80 8 2024-25
2 32 Mattias Samuelsson 212 43 2024-25
2019
1 22 Tobias Bjornfot 134 15 2024-25
1 23 Simon Holmstrom 200 79 2024-25
1 24 Philip Tomasino 209 94 2024-25
1 25 Connor McMichael 237 108 2024-25
1 26 Jakob Pelletier 86 29 2024-25
1 27 Nolan Foote 30 9 2024-25
1 28 Ryan Suzuki 2 0 2024-25
1 29 Brayden Tracey 1 0 2021-22
1 30 John Beecher 130 21 2024-25
1 31 Ryan Johnson 44 7 2024-25
2 32 Shane Pinto 210 107 2024-25
2020
1 22 Hendrix Lapierre 84 31 2024-25
1 23 Tyson Foerster 166 83 2024-25
1 24 Connor Zary 117 61 2024-25
1 25 Justin Barron 156 43 2024-25
1 26 Jake Neighbours 211 96 2024-25
1 27 Jacob Perreault 1 0 2021-22
1 28 Ridly Greig 170 69 2024-25
1 29 Brendan Brisson 24 8 2024-25
1 30 Mavrik Bourque 74 25 2024-25
1 31 Ozzy Wiesblatt 5 1 2024-25
2 32 William Wallinder
2021
1 22 Xavier Bourgault
1 23 Wyatt Johnston 246 177 2024-25
1 24 MatthewSamoskevich 79 31 2024-25
1 25 Corson Ceulemans
1 26 Carson Lambos
1 27 Zachary L'Heureux 62 15 2024-25
1 28 Oskar Olausson 4 0 2024-25
1 29 Chase Stillman
1 30 Zachary Dean 9 0 2023-24
1 31 Logan Mailloux 8 5 2024-25
1 32 Nolan Allan 43 8 2024-25
2022
1 22 Nathan Gaucher
1 23 Jimmy Snuggerud 7 4 2024-25
1 24 Danila Yurov
1 25 Sam Rinzel 9 5 2024-25
1 26 Filip Mesar
1 27 Filip Bystedt
1 28 Jiri Kulich 63 24 2024-25
1 29 Maveric Lamoureux 15 3 2024-25
1 30 Brad Lambert 6 2 2024-25
1 31 Isaac Howard
1 32 Reid Schaefer
2023
1 22 Oliver Bonk
1 23 Gabriel Perreault 5 0 2024-25
1 24 Tanner Molendyk
1 25 Otto Stenberg
1 26 Quentin Musty
1 27 Calum Ritchie 7 1 2024-25
1 28 Easton Cowan
1 29 Theo Lindstein
1 30 Bradly Nadeau 3 1 2024-25
1 31 Mikhail Gulyayev
1 32 David Edstrom
2024
1 22 Yegor Surin
1 23 Stian Solberg
1 24 Cole Beaudoin
1 25 Dean Letourneau
1 26 Liam Greentree
1 27 Marek Vanacker
1 28 Matvei Gridin
1 29 Emil Hemming
1 30 E.J. Emery
1 31 Ben Danford
1 32 Sam O'Reilly
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