Quote:
Originally Posted by Nelson
Okay, I disagree. I think you can look at things like players’ positions, birth months, stats, and skill sets and get a good idea of which players would be good for your team in the draft. These players are not completely unpredictable. Teams don’t have to be agnostic. They make decisions based on concrete information. And based on mock drafts and rankings, I think the later you go in the first round of this draft, the more likely you are to be picking a player who turns into nothing at all based on his numbers. It’s about probabilities. Of course, you’re right. You can also find drafts where the best player is taken in the 2nd round, etc. But I think moving down 7-10 spots in the draft, from 22 to 29-32, will hurt the Flames’ chances of getting a really good prospect out of this draft.
I definitely understand your position is it’s a crapshoot whether it’s 22 or 29-32. And I have to admit that the specific players, whom I want for the Flames, could all be gone by 22. In that case, I will agree with you. Haha
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With Ottawa losing their pick the Flames were looking at getting the 21st player in the draft, now we'll likely beg that it's the 31st as we'll need the Panthers to beat the Oilers again.
So statistically, you can still find a NHL player in that range, but the odds do that do start to dwindle. Even picking 28 vs 30 seems to make a difference. When you're down that far, you need other teams around you to miss and a bit of luck. Realistically that pick has about a 25% chance of playing 200 games as a Flame, whereas 10 spots higher it would likely be more in the 35% range, and a better chance of it being a more impactful player.
By quick browsing Adrian Kempe is far and away the best player picked in that 28 to 31 range since like 2012 and he was pick 29. So with Florida likely being pick 30 or 31 that group is Ryan Hartman and Henri Jokiharju. Now there are others picked after that who are quite good. But yeah, this pick has a 75% bust rate if we're being honest.