Quote:
Originally Posted by Nelson
Okay, I disagree. I think you can look at things like players’ positions, birth months, stats, and skill sets and get a good idea of which players would be good for your team in the draft. These players are not completely unpredictable. Teams don’t have to be agnostic. They make decisions based on concrete information. And based on mock drafts and rankings, I think the later you go in the first round of this draft, the more likely you are to be picking a player who turns into nothing at all based on his numbers. It’s about probabilities. Of course, you’re right. You can also find drafts where the best player is taken in the 2nd round, etc. But I think moving down 7-10 spots in the draft, from 22 to 29-32, will hurt the Flames’ chances of getting a really good prospect out of this draft.
I definitely understand your position is it’s a crapshoot whether it’s 22 or 29-32. And I have to admit that the specific players, whom I want for the Flames, could all be gone by 22. In that case, I will agree with you. Haha
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Of course teams base their picks on information. But between 20-32, that information has teams reach wildly different conclusions and I think the evidence shows that, when their careers are done, there’s not a lot of difference in result between a 20 OA and a 29 OA. Look back at 2015-2018 - that’s a decent amount of time for a career to show out. Look at picks 20-31 and tell me how the research played out.