[troutman]

Originally Posted by Mickey76

Thanks for the ongoing analysis MBates.

One of the most ridiculous comments/beliefs that has been made throughout this thread is that false sexual assault claims are very rare: Making the players more likely to be guilty. This is a 100% unknowable stat. There is no way to know how prevalent it is or isn’t. Anyone who says they knowis simply lying. It may be rare, it’s probably rare, but there is absolutely no way to tell with any accuracy whatsoever how rare. So some think tank saying it’s rare because it’s seldom proven doesn’t make it true or not. The case should be solely determined on whether or not the Jury believes in this specific case that the players are guilty. Not influenced by a made up stat.

There is research:

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-...ths-facts.html

False accusations of sexual assault are extremely rare (only 2-4%). Research demonstrates that rates of false reporting are consistent across violent crimes, including sexual assault.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21164210/

All cases (N = 136) of sexual assault reported to a major Northeastern university over a 10-year period are analyzed to determine the percentage of false allegations. Of the 136 cases of sexual assault reported over the 10-year period, 8 (5.9%) are coded as false allegations. These results, taken in the context of an examination of previous research, indicate that the prevalence of false allegations is between 2% and 10%.

https://evawintl.org/best_practice_f...ts-percentage/

In reality, no one knows – and in fact no one can possibly know – exactly how many sexual assault reports are false. However, estimates narrow to the range of 2-8% when they are based on rigorous research of case classifications using specific criteria and incorporating various protections of the reliability and validity of the research.

http://www.alanberkowitz.com/article...20Ch.%2016.pdf