Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe
(This is a longer post, and I guess I had a lot to say about this topic. Not everything is directly related to your post Enoch, and I actually generally agree with your concerns and I usually share them as well).
Completely understand what you are saying, but this is when proper scouting comes in. I think a lot of these guys fail simply because of poor scouting, or simply because it is an 18 year old draft, period.
For instance, this board still rages about the Keegan Kanzig and Hunter Smith picks, but they do it without any context for the most part other than size. They just assume that both of these players were talentless goons who were drafted only for their size and nothing else.
In Kanzig's case, the Flames had their org meetings in Vancouver that year, and Button decided to get everyone to take the ferry over and go and check out Kanzig. He was on their radar from the previous season already. Every scout loved him. They kept tabs on him throughout the season, and Kanzig took big developmental steps. He was lauded for his IQ, his leadership at a young age, his amazing work ethic, and his footspeed vs size. He didn't just destroy guys along the boards or in front of the net, but he also stuffed a lot of zone entries and plays with his long reach, IQ and mobility. It just didn't work out, and people still complain about that pick without the background surrounding the pick (most importantly, the fact that they had scouted him intensively for a couple of years). I am sure Cammarata's name popped up as one of the guys that the Flames should have drafted instead (less than 10 picks after Kanzig). He was 5'7", but a wizard. 59GP, 38G 55A 93PTS in his draft year. He ended up playing exactly the same number of games as Kanzig did - zero. I am sure nobody would be bringing up his name at all as a 'waste of a pick'. It would have been thought of as a great attempt at an out-of-the-park homerun, even though had Kanzig developed into whom they thought he would, he would have been an absolute out of the park homerun himself. Imagine Regehr, but only bigger and much more mean and scary.
Hunter Smith is the other guy that really seems to be the poster child for the anti-size movement here. Like Kanzig, people just said: "The Flames wasted a pick on drafting a goon". Nope, that's not what it was. Again, the Flames were scouting this guy intensively. He got passed over in his draft year, but the Flames invited him to camp. There was a good chance that he would have gotten signed that year, but unfortunately, he was injured and couldn't come. The next year saw him have a 'break-out' year - he played in all situations - PK, PP and with top-line players, and he did well. Flames felt that they needed to take him with the pick they did. In the end, one only has to look at what Klapka is becoming to understand what the Flames saw in Hunter Smith. I am sure there are many other small skilled guys who were available at the Smith pick who also busted, and again, I would bet that nobody would have blinked an eye and probably would have just said it was an unfortunate miss, but good on the Flames for taking that swing. Mangiapane was also an overager taken by the Flames after experiencing a dramatic increase in points in his draft+1 year. Sometimes these over-agers work out simply because they were on teams with more depth and never got the right opportunities before.
Is prospect X the next Eric Lindros or Alexander Ovechkin? Or is he the next Mark McNeil?
Another great example, and another player that I really wanted the Flames to take back in the day - Ryan Murphy. Super slick defencemen, although undersized. Apparently he was also super-developed physically, just short. He was able to get to pucks quicker and do some of the things he was able to do because of his overly-developed physique. Some people saw it as a good thing (including me) by saying he was such a hard worker and already a mature pro at his young age. Contrast that with Hunter Shinkaruk - super slick player, but physically immature compared to his peers at the draft. Lots of 'room to grow'. What happened? He didn't grow. Everyone passed him. Sure, there were many stories out there about everything to do with this kid, and the Flames did pass on him (in hindsight, smartly), but then they went and traded for him (change of scenery trade), and in the end, he just didn't work out. I didn't want Shinkaruk. Turned out, they both busted. Maybe they both busted for the same reasons in spite of their differing sizes and physical development. Sometimes physical development doesn't have anything to do with it.
Sometimes these big guys need more time to 'grow into their bodies' and adjust with things like coordination of muscle-tone. Sometimes smaller guys simply peak earlier, but because they do, they sometimes get a developmental advantage by being given more opportunity earlier on. It is a fascinating discussion really.
I share your concerns Enoch. At the end of the day, this is an 18 year old draft, and therefore it is a crapshoot with low accuracy. Flames have been outstanding at finding players through the draft, and even as free agents (Giordano in the past, Klapka recently). They will miss, but I will always respect them for their swings. Kanzig and Smith were great home-run swings that missed. Gaudreau was a home-run attempt that hit.
I just really find everyone's story really interesting. I just get tired of the 'Kanzig and Smith picks were awful since they were both goons' lazy rationales. Plenty of in-depth articles and interviews around why the Flames drafted them at the time that people ignore, and held onto the 'stupid goon' opinions instead.
With some players, it is super easy to figure out that their size and skill combination will translate. There was no stopping Lindros in junior, and it was the exact same at the NHL level until the concussions stopped him. These are at the top of the draft. Everyone else has warts, and it takes a lot of experience - and sometimes many different sets of eyes, character checks, and the best possible development plan - to get these into the NHL as impact players. I just think that there are many over-sized players that provide a lot of help at the NHL level as there are undersized guys who do the same. Plenty of busts both way too.
If the Flames draft another 6'5"+ player, I will trust that they feel this player is going to be an impact player beyond being a 'goon'. I thought that the Parker Bell and Jaden LIpinski picks were both 'throw-away' picks at the time, but I came to see why the Flames ended up drafting these two. Still long-shots to make it really, but I am glad that they Flames have them in their organization. Hunter Laing is another guy that seemed like a bit of reach for me, but I kept an open-mind about him. There may be something good there - plenty of highlights this past season of him making high-skilled plays. There are often large players that I absolutely don't want the Flames to pick, as I also think they are getting by because of their increased size, but don't have enough in the way of additional tools or skills to make it work at the NHL level.
One guy that I would have loved to see evolve wold have been George Pelawa. What could have been with him. 6'3", but 245lbs of muscle. If that tragic event didn't happen, perhaps he would have been the guy that fans would remember and want the Flames to continue going for an occasional 'size is good' home-run hit where warranted. I bet he would have been something special.
|