Quote:
Originally Posted by PepsiFree
OK, well 90% of people think he’s getting traded, I’m not sure what 30% has to do with anything or what I said, but yes 30% is more than 10%.
Useless in isolation. I think that’s been made pretty clear and we all agree.
You can see how this is totally contradictory to the following, right?
So you’re wrong about his value, wrong about his ability, or just setting yourself up for some kind of disappointment in general. If you think he’s so bad that you question why anyone would give up a first rounder for him, you should absolutely not even entertain the idea of us getting a top 15 pick or even a conditional next year.
I think the argument is that you have until the deadline, not that it’s always the best time (sometimes it is, plenty of evidence for that). Summer, start of season, mid season. The best time is when someone meets the ask.
And if a 1st should be off the table, it might be best to wait for a contender to offer up a later first near the deadline.
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The value of the player is different if the contract changes. My point on the top 15 is based on analysis that I did of the 2004-2018 drafts and the odds of getting 2nd line or better players. If we can retain salary and get a top 15 pick, do it in a heartbeat. But I'm not holding my breath that we will get that. Don't think I said we should hold out for it? Just using my data to find that point in the draft where the value actually goes up. If you are outside that range, why not take a lessor pick this year and go the condition route down the road.
Some will say if we don't get a 1st at minimum, we should wait until the trade deadline (no salary retained). My data shows the odds of getting a 1st or 2nd line player in 15 years of drafts as follows.
1OV - 93.33%
2OV - 80%
3-5OV - 56.39%
6-10OV - 39.33%
11-20 - 22%
21-end of round 1- 16.56%
2nd - 7.5%
3rd - 4.31%
4th - 2.66%
5th - 2.22%
6th - 0.89%
7th - 0.44%
So, for me, if teams are not willing to part with a 1st in this draft but are willing to do 2 picks outside the 1st, is it really that much worse if you get 2 2nds and in 2 different years? Most I bet would say it is, I don't agree.
I like getting picks in 2 different drafts as I feel it increased the odds of getting someone good outside the top 5 as it is less likely 2 drafts are weak vs 1.
I also like adding conditions, if the team is happy with the trade they give up more. They re-sign Rasmus, 1 pick could be a top 10 protected 1st. Or they go far in the playoffs, the 2nd becomes a 1st.
I bet most would be very disappointed in 2 2nds and would rather wait until the trade deadline. I disagree and I don't expect anyone to 100% agree with my data, but I base my opinion on it. What's your take on 2 2nds over 2 different draft vs 1 1st outside the top 20?