Quote:
Originally Posted by Sandman
I agree to a certain extent, but the few players in this draft that have that true #1C potential are the players I mentioned. You can't draft a bunch of future #2's and hope that one turns out to be good enough to be a true top-line C. It happens, but most of the time- you have to draft early to get them.
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The question is, how certain can you be in determining that a 17-year-old player can
never develop in to a top-line centre? Of course you can't get a #1 C by drafting a future #2. But you don't know which ones are the future #2's until the future actually arrives. There are always players, including centres, who aren't drafted in the top ten picks, despite having a high ceiling, because they are viewed as having a low probability of reaching that ceiling. Of course, most of the time they don't – which is the information scouts draw on to assess that probability. But a low probability is not the same as no chance.
I suspect that at least one player
not on your very short list will eventually make the grade, and some of those on the list will not. That's usually the case, and that level of uncertainty is inherent in an 18-year-old draft.