[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

This goal, and about 3 others last night, are a great example of what I mean when I say xG is a terribly flawed stat. I have tried to explain, over and over, how the stat can't measure time and space, and as a result, does not accurately reflect the real danger of actual chances.

In I think 4 of the goals last night, the shooter was in a location that was somewhat dangerous, and the 'expected' outcome would be maybe 20% chance of a goal. However, the stat can't measure time and space, and in each case, the shooter was able to walk in with his head up, look at Skinner, pick a spot, and get a perfect shot off. The ACTUAL likelihood of a goal, in each case was MUCH higher, because of how much time and space they had. But the stat can't measure that.

So the result (according to the stat) will be that the Kings got more goals than expected, and Skinner was terrible. But in reality what happened was that the Oilers defense gave 4 guys ALL DAY to walk in and pick a corner. And when you do that, today's shooters will score almost every time.

We need to bring back the DERP (Defensive error resulting in Points) stat we used when Hall was an Oiler. It would be kind of like the plus minus, but you could isolate the players directly responsible. So on that play Draisaitl, Nurse and Bouchard would all get +1 DERP.