Quote:
Originally Posted by Macho0978
I went through the 2004-2018 drafts and assigned the follow to every player taken:
Elite
1st Liner
2nd Liner
Not top 2 lines or #1 goalie
Lots of good players taken that I did not assign in the top 3 categories.
End results have not a huge difference in picks 6-10 vs 11-20. Really if you aren't picking top 5, a 1st anywhere in the rest of the round are close in value.
Things fall off fast after the 1st and top 8 picks in the 2nd vs the rest of the 2nd, vs every other round is very similar.
People may not agree with my % but this is how it ened up.
1OV - 46.67% Elite - 80% 1st liner - 6.67% Bust
2OV - 33.33% Elite - 60% 1st liner - 20% Bust
3OV - 13.33% Elite - 33.33% 1st liner - 53.33% Bust
4OV - 13.33% Elite - 33.33% 1st liner - 37.50% Bust
5OV - 6.67% Elite - 33.33% 1st Liner - 40% Bust
6-10 OV - 2.67% Elite - 13.33% 1st Liner - 61.33% Bust
11-20 OV - 2% Elite - 9.33% 1st Liner - 78% Bust
21-30/31 = 1.32% Elite - 5.96% 1st Liner - 83.44% Bust
Top 8 2nd Round - 0 Elite - 1.67% 1st Liner 92.50% Bust
Rest of 2nd - 0.6% Elite - 0.91% 1st Liner - 92.45% Bust
3rd - 0.89% Elite - 1.77% 1st Liner - 95.79% Bust
4th - 0% Elite - 1.11% 1st Liner - 97.34% Bust
5th - 0.44% Elite - 0.89% 1st Liner - 97.78% Bust
6th = 0% Elite - 0.44% 1st liner - 99.11% Bust
7th = 0% Elite - 0.22% 1st Liner - 99.56% Bust
6-10 vs 11-20 favors 6-10, but the difference isn't that much. Winning and having young players play well and gain experience is more valuable than picking top 10, unless you pick top 5 and then it's worth losing.
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It's still spin to say the Flames are short on picks which was my point...I would rather have one less late round pick and two firsts than 3 more late round picks and 1 first. So would everyone.