Quote:
Originally Posted by PepsiFree
You’re right, it’s not unreasonable. I just don’t have any reason to believe you have the ability based on your comments. I imagine that most people in scouting and player development know, considering most fans also know, that development isn’t linear and takes more than a year to play out.
The reason consensus first overalls can turn out to be busts is because of this. If it was really just a matter of whether there were good scouts and bad scouts, these players wouldn’t be number one, because the good scouts wouldn’t rank them that highly. It’s fun to believe there’s just good ones and bad ones, but that doesn’t explain why nearly every team passed on a player like Kucherov twice, or why Wolf was a 7th round pick, or Gaudreau a 4th. It’s one thing to identify talent, but nobody can predict the future or exactly how a development curve is going to go, or how guys are going to show up once they actually turn pro.
AL was ranked between 2 and 6 most places I saw. He was predicted as a guy that needed 2-3 years before he was NHL ready and that’s looking accurate. Maybe he turns out as the second best player in the draft, maybe not, but you’re being silly if you think you know any better than I do or the many, many scouts who ranked him second.
Feel free to put your money where your mouth is and rank this year’s draft though. Go up to top 30. Will happily eat crow if you want to bring it up down the line, especially if you don’t just copy and paste someone else’s rankings lol.
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Your opinion is valid, and don't let my account join date mislead you—I've been lurking CP since before our cup run in '04. I'm more than willing to put my reputation on the line to prove my point, so be sure to stick around. If I'm wrong, I'll own it, but more often than not, my picks are spot on.
Spotting top-tier talent is second nature to me including finding diamond in the rough, something I've done for years—and it's not as difficult as it seems. Also, recognizing players who will underperform or be marginal NHLers in the first round can sometimes be even easier than finding stars. Many people assume that having an NHL title automatically means someone has a keen eye for player selection, but I assure you that's not true. Time will tell, and I'm perfectly comfortable having my posts etched in CP history for all to see.