So if I get that right, the 18-32 range means we are looking at 14 picks per year. Looking at 2005-2018 since it gets more uncertain past that, we end up with 14 years or 196 picks with 18 top six players found (including the 33nd bonus to make the numbers look better). Giving us a 9.18% success rate.
Using this from the Flames perspective, the chance we hit at least 1 too six player with the two picks would be: each pick having a 90.82% chance of not getting a top six forward, so 90.82% × 90.82% = 82.48% change of missing both, giving us a 17.52% chance of getting at least one.
But that is not taking into account things like the quality of the draft or team drafting ability. So it is more masturbatory math, but still a rough idea of the odds.
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