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#-3 · 04-01-2025, 01:42 PM

I made a simple formula

expected points per game = point percent / average opposition point percent x (total points in west conference to date / total team games played in western conference to date)
*second half of the formula in theory adjusts for 3 point games.

Ends up looking like this for what is probably the median expected outcome at this point in time.

EDM 101 - 12pts in 9 games
MIN 97 - 9 points in 7 games
STL 95 - 8 points in 7 games

CGY 93 - 11 points in 9 games
VAN 90 - 9 points in 8 games

Not insurmountable, but an uphill battle. Assuming the Flame win tonight and the Wild/Blues lose their next game, Thursday morning the expected outcome for the 3 teams could be a virtual tie 95/94/94.

Also worth noting games vs sub 500 teams,
Min 2
Stl 2
Cgy 4

04-01-2025, 01:42 PM	#243
#-3 #1 Goaltender Join Date: Mar 2008 Exp:	I made a simple formula expected points per game = point percent / average opposition point percent x (total points in west conference to date / total team games played in western conference to date) second half of the formula in theory adjusts for 3 point games. Ends up looking like this for what is probably the median expected outcome at this point in time. EDM 101 - 12pts in 9 games MIN 97 - 9 points in 7 games STL 95 - 8 points in 7 games CGY 93 - 11 points in 9 games VAN 90 - 9 points in 8 games Not insurmountable, but an uphill battle. Assuming the Flame win tonight and the Wild/Blues lose their next game, Thursday morning the expected outcome for the 3 teams could be a virtual tie 95/94/94. Also worth noting games vs sub 500 teams, Min 2 Stl 2 Cgy 4 Last edited by #-3; 04-01-2025 at 01:50 PM.*