Quote:
Originally Posted by Leondros
And how many times do you recommend we do this song and dance? We are on number 3 right now. Is 10 reasonable? or perhaps his full term - 48 times? At some point we are going to need to end this silliness and its going to be painful. But right now what's even worse is the uncertainty these tariffs are causing.
In the O&G industry alone there is billions and billions of capital on the sidelines due to the uncertainty of the impact of tariffs on the supply chain. Mega projects that were going to create tens of thousands of jobs are on hold because a 25% tariff running through the supply chain changes an ROI of 15 - 20% negative.
Looking at the auto industry there is no way the US is going to reshore their manufacturing by the time Trump's term is up. Its just not going to happen and thats just look at the capital component of the projects, not skill of labor and ramp up. What is far more likely to happen is the US consumer faced with a scarcity of vehicles produced in the US are going to have to bite the bullet and pay the 25% tariff on them. My point is demand won't go to 0.
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The secondary issue is even if the US reshores their auto industry, a lot of parts & raw materials to make the cars are still going to come from Canada which adds cost regardless of if 75% of everything else is done in the US. The F-150 is a great example of this.
I think there is a reason Ford has toned down the rhetoric this time around. Last time it was 'I dare you to do it and I'll immediately tax your power', but now he's saying 'well I guess we will see.' Why? My guess is he sees a way out of this.
Everyone also needs to remember Trump was this unreasonable during his first administration as well, and the Trudeau government found a way to deal with him.