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getbak · 03-17-2025, 12:17 PM

After the weekend, Penn State is 13th in the Pairwise. Whether or not they make the NCAA tournament now hinges on the results of the Conference championships, which will be held next weekend.

The Atlantic Hockey and CCHA tournaments won't have an impact because all of the teams in contention in those conferences are behind Penn State and will get the 15th and 16th seeds regardless of which teams win. That happens with those conferences every year.

The Big 10 tournament won't have an impact because both finalists are already ahead of Penn State and are already qualified, so they can't bump Penn State out.

The other three conferences all have the potential to play a factor:

I've been playing around with the "You Are the Committee" tool on collegehockeynews.com (https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php) and it looks like if Quinnipiac loses to Cornell on Friday, Penn State will move up to 12th, which would virtually guarantee them a spot in the tournament.

Otherwise, in the ECAC, Quinnipiac is the only one of the remaining 4 teams currently ahead of Penn State in the Pairwise. If any of the other 3 teams wins the ECAC, it would be bad for Penn State because they'd take one of the spots in the tournament.

There are three possible outcomes and two are good for Penn State:
If Quinnipiac wins the ECAC = Good for Penn State because Quinnipiac is already in a tournament spot ahead of Penn State

If Quinnipiac loses the ECAC semifinal = Good for Penn State because Penn State would move ahead of Quinnipiac in the Pairwise

If Quinnipiac loses the ECAC final = Bad for Penn State because Quinnipiac would stay ahead of Penn State in the Pairwise and the ECAC Champion would take one of the tournament spots

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In Hockey East, 3 of the 4 semifinalists have already locked up their spots in the tournament. The only risk for Penn State would be if Northeastern wins Hockey East. Right now, they're 23rd in the Pairwise, so it's unlikely they defeat 2 top-10 teams this weekend, but they did defeat the #1 ranked Boston College on the weekend to make the semifinal, so anything is possible.

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In the NCHC, Denver and Western Michigan are currently ahead of Penn State and North Dakota and ASU are behind. If one of the teams ahead of them wins, it's good for Penn State. If one of the teams behind them wins, it's bad.

Penn State needs 2 of the 3 conferences to go in their favour to qualify.

03-17-2025, 12:17 PM	#275
getbak Franchise Player Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Calgary, AB Exp:	After the weekend, Penn State is 13th in the Pairwise. Whether or not they make the NCAA tournament now hinges on the results of the Conference championships, which will be held next weekend. The Atlantic Hockey and CCHA tournaments won't have an impact because all of the teams in contention in those conferences are behind Penn State and will get the 15th and 16th seeds regardless of which teams win. That happens with those conferences every year. The Big 10 tournament won't have an impact because both finalists are already ahead of Penn State and are already qualified, so they can't bump Penn State out. The other three conferences all have the potential to play a factor: I've been playing around with the "You Are the Committee" tool on collegehockeynews.com (https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php) and it looks like if Quinnipiac loses to Cornell on Friday, Penn State will move up to 12th, which would virtually guarantee them a spot in the tournament. Otherwise, in the ECAC, Quinnipiac is the only one of the remaining 4 teams currently ahead of Penn State in the Pairwise. If any of the other 3 teams wins the ECAC, it would be bad for Penn State because they'd take one of the spots in the tournament. There are three possible outcomes and two are good for Penn State: If Quinnipiac wins the ECAC = Good for Penn State because Quinnipiac is already in a tournament spot ahead of Penn State If Quinnipiac loses the ECAC semifinal = Good for Penn State because Penn State would move ahead of Quinnipiac in the Pairwise If Quinnipiac loses the ECAC final = Bad for Penn State because Quinnipiac would stay ahead of Penn State in the Pairwise and the ECAC Champion would take one of the tournament spots ---------- In Hockey East, 3 of the 4 semifinalists have already locked up their spots in the tournament. The only risk for Penn State would be if Northeastern wins Hockey East. Right now, they're 23rd in the Pairwise, so it's unlikely they defeat 2 top-10 teams this weekend, but they did defeat the #1 ranked Boston College on the weekend to make the semifinal, so anything is possible. ---------- In the NCHC, Denver and Western Michigan are currently ahead of Penn State and North Dakota and ASU are behind. If one of the teams ahead of them wins, it's good for Penn State. If one of the teams behind them wins, it's bad. Penn State needs 2 of the 3 conferences to go in their favour to qualify. __________________ Turn up the good, turn down the suck!