Quote:
Originally Posted by Cowboy89
The only issue is missing the eventual rebound. Between 1995-2024 78% of the stock market’s best days have occurred during a bear market or during the first two months of a bull market. If you missed the market’s 10 best days over the past 30 years, your returns would have been cut in half. And missing the best 30 days would have reduced your returns by 83%.
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No offence intended, but I laugh every time I hear this "best days" information. I mean sure, that is true. But because those stats take place during those terrible times, those best days are after the precipitous fall. So yeah, it would suck to miss that big day (which is like 2-3%, and a massive move upward), but not dropping that 15% first is a bigger impact.
I'm not suggesting that you can get out, buy at the bottom and everything is perfect because that is just luck if you can even do that once. But, just saying that this statistic sounds a lot better than it is in practice.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leondros
Agreed on this - 1.5 years is very short for equities. There is a reason why planning into retirement your change to weighting to bonds starts 10 years out if not earlier.
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Well, if you should/intend to go to bonds. This gets into a tangential discussion about risk management and asset allocation...but it's not exactly cut and dried.