Quote:
Originally Posted by Regorium
I think a lot of it is financial.
Let's assume a new Energy East is a $30B project - much longer than TMX, but less challenging terrain.
What company out there would want to take this type of project on?
South Bow (formerly TC energy that would've been trying KXL) is a $8B market cap company - there's no chance they have the capacity to do it.
Enbridge is a $130B company - still that's a $30B capital project when their capital spending on the entirety of their system is maybe $10B every year. They've also seen what regulatory appetite might look like with their Line 5 issues as well as their Line 3 replacement. They've also focused a lot on US natural gas utilities, as well as export infrastructure in the Gulf Coast - I don't think there's much appetite for them to take on another large oil pipeline.
TC Energy is out of the oil game. Pembina? Inter Pipeline? Wayy too small for this type of project.
I could see a nation building project with Transmountain the Crown corp that could take this on because they have the backing of the Canadian taxpayer - but is there actually enough political will to give another $30B to the O&G industry even in times like this?
I think it's more than regulatory. Even if you told every operator that you'd ignore indigenous claims, ignore the courts, brutally arrest all protestors, veto the provinces and fast-track every approval, and that it's somehow guaranteed past this period of tariffs and also survives through the election, I think the government would still need to front a significant sum of money (like 8-10B up front) before anyone would be remotely enticed to take it on.
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100% it would have to be TransMountain with a blank cheque.
No one else touches that project with a 100' pole. That being said let's make it happen, what's $30bn compared to what we're going to lose on the tariffs? Just get it done and promise Quebec some investment into more refining capacity.