Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor
But in what realistic scenario is Russia not going to be able to regroup? If Russia being decimated to the point that they can't mount an offensive in the future is the standard for any negotiated settlement, then there will never be peace.
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When UA Forces push the Russians back to their border, then Ukraine can go for a ceasefire. Then a post ceasefire settlement might include leaving kursk.
Kursk really is the ace here and the wildcard simultaneously. Let's say, in some perfect scenario, an international peacekeeping force of 500,000 is deployed to monitor the ceasefire and deter violations, presumably. This force would have to be mostly on the line of contact, which includes being in Kursk. Is Putin gonna be cool with 80k armed foreign soldiers on internationally recognized Russian territory? Their whole reason for the special military operation (not a war!) was to prevent the imminent invasion by nazis under a Jewish commander in chief. Yep...
Conscription? No, it's a partial mobilization. We just need 500,000 troops now. It's not an emergency cluster f at all! Putin has one move that he's used consistently: double down. He can't lose or he's out of office and probably not doing well. So he's gonna double down.
Typically peacekeeping rules of engagement are such that they can only fire if they're fired upon. Any chance Russia engages in a ceasefire in good faith?
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