[SuperMatt18]

When you look at the Western conference playoff race it really feels like 6 teams are probably locks: Winnipeg, Dallas, Vegas, Minnesota, Edmonton, LA. They all have P% over .620 and have been in playoff spots most of the year.

And 4 teams with no real shot since they sit .450 or worse: Seattle, Nashville, Chicago, San Jose.

Then it will be the bubble teams - that TBH haven't been great over the last 20 games. All of the teams in the playoff bubble picture have actually underperformed vs their full season pace over the last 20 games. They also all have a very similar Strength of Schedule remaining over the final 20-25 games.

If you make an assumption the will play the same as their last 20 game pace, over the remainder of the season then the playoff threshold is actually pretty low.

Full Season / Last 20 Games / Projected Pace if stay at last 20 games pace

Colorado: .576 / .500 / 91 points (.543 remaining schedule strength)
Calgary - .561 / .525 / 90 points (.555 remaining schedule strength)

--------- Playoff Threshold ----------

Vancouver - .553 / .475 / 87 points (.553 remaining schedule strength)
Utah - .515 / .500 / 84 points (.543 remaining schedule strength)
St. Louis - .508 / .500 / 83 points (.543 remaining schedule strength)

------- Likely Bottom 10 Pick Threshold -------

Anaheim - .500 / . 525 / 83 points (.552 remaining schedule strength)

In order to be a playoff team you need to finish at the front of this pack - in order to get a top 10 pick you likely need to finish at the back of this pack of 6 teams.

Based on the season performance as a whole, and the last 20 games, the Flames are in a pretty good spot.