[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by #-3

It's certainly not without president

McDavid is 28 on pace for 116 pts.

At 28 Thornton had 114 pts. followed by 96,86,89,70,77, he was pretty much a mid 70s pt player for his 30s.

*because he got his points playing in Pit in the 90s, but Kevin Stevens went;
123 pts at 27 then, 111, 88, 82pt pace, 36, 34, 41...

Mike Goulet at 28 106pt, then 64,51,65,63,44

Kurri at 28, 96pts, then 102,93,60,87,77

Huberdeau at 28 had a 91 pt pace, then 115,55,52,62.

There are lots of examples of guys who put up a few very high point season in there late 20s who then became middling second tier offensive players in their 30s. And I've been arguing for years that McDavids game is specifically built for that kind of decline. Given the way he plays, I think for him to continue to be successful and not be one of those guys, he would need to learn to be more of a power forward, instead of skating around guys he is going to need to learn to skate through them. I don't know if that will happen or not.

It's pretty crazy that you can look up almost any truly elite player across different generations and watch the elite and best scoring seasons fall off from ages ~30 onwards. McDavid could push the limits if he stays healthy for a year or two beyond that, but I don't see any scenario where the Oilers aren't paying something like $18-20M per year to keep him and having him produce more like a top 15-20 scorer versus dominating the scoring charts like he has been.

The Oilers are going to be knee deep in kaka paying Leon and McDavid ~$35M per for forever in just a couple of seasons when they aren't able to cover up all the warts on that team anymore. The only better outcome would be if they extend Bouchard and Skinner to mega deals too.