Quote:
Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus
I've said this before, but he's getting close to that tipping point that all elite NHL talents get to in this game. The raw talent that takes you from top scorer to generational scorer starts to fade ~30 and with the extra mileage of ice time he feels, it could happen sooner than that. There's maybe a handful of exceptions that were able to keep up a comparable scoring pace beyond that age, and these were players that had games not fully built on speed.
Do I think McDavid is going to go from a 130pt player to 60pt player? No. But he could very well drop to 90-100pt player in the next year or two and start to miss 10-15 games a season as the body breaks down. Is that going to be enough to carry the Oilers with their bungled cap structure? No.
Really, the Oilers are in must win territory before father time rears his ugly face, and when you're just no good to begin with, it doesn't bode well for the future.
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It's certainly not without president
McDavid is 28 on pace for 116 pts.
At 28 Thornton had 114 pts. followed by 96,86,89,70,77, he was pretty much a mid 70s pt player for his 30s.
*because he got his points playing in Pit in the 90s, but Kevin Stevens went;
123 pts at 27 then, 111, 88, 82pt pace, 36, 34, 41...
Mike Goulet at 28 106pt, then 64,51,65,63,44
Kurri at 28, 96pts, then 102,93,60,87,77
Huberdeau at 28 had a 91 pt pace, then 115,55,52,62.
There are lots of examples of guys who put up a few very high point season in there late 20s who then became middling second tier offensive players in their 30s. And I've been arguing for years that McDavids game is specifically built for that kind of decline. Given the way he plays, I think for him to continue to be successful and not be one of those guys, he would need to learn to be more of a power forward, instead of skating around guys he is going to need to learn to skate through them. I don't know if that will happen or not.