[bluejays]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Let's compare Soto and Vlad over the past 4 seasons since based on age, offensive output, and defensive shortcomings they are the two best comparisons:

Vlad:

2021: 6.7 rWAR, 48 HR, 1.002 OPS, .311 BA, 6.3 fwar
2022: 4.0 rWAR, 32 HR, .818 OPS, .274 BA, 3.3 fwar
2023: 2.0 rWAR, 26 HR, ,788 OPS, .264 BA, 1.3 fwar
2024: 6.2 rWAR, 30 HR, .940 OPS, .323 BA, 5.5 fwar

Soto:

2021: 7.1 rWAR, 29 HR, .999 OPS, .313 BA, 6.8 fwar
2022: 5.5 rWAR, 27 HR, .854 OPS, .242 BA, 3.7 fwar
2023: 5.5 rWAR, 35 HR, .930 OPS, .275 BA, 6.0 fwar
2024: 7.9 rWAR, 41 HR, .989 OPS, .288 BA, 8.1 fwar

So in the last 4 years Soto is more consistent and generally has more value overall.

Soto: 26 rWAR, 24.6 rWAR, 132 HRs, .279 AVG, .943 OPS, 19.9% BB%, 16.0% K%
Vlad: 18.9 rWAR, 16.4 rWAR, 136 HRs, .293 AVG, .887 OPS, 10.2% BB%, 15.2% K%

Problem being looking at the past is discounting Vlad for those two mediocre seasons, where Vlad does have that potential to be an MVP candidate. And at their absolute best seasons they are similar players:

If you look at each of their best two seasons of the past 4 (happens to be 2021 and 2024 for both of them):

Vlad:

2021: 6.7 rWAR, 48 HR, 1.002 OPS, .311 BA, 6.3 fwar
2024: 6.2 rWAR, 30 HR, .940 OPS, .323 BA, 5.5 fwar

Total: 12.9 rWAR, 78 HR, 0.971 OPS, .317 BA, 11.8 fWAR

2021: 7.1 rWAR, 29 HR, .999 OPS, .313 BA, 6.8 fwar
2024: 7.9 rWAR, 41 HR, .989 OPS, .288 BA, 8.1 fwar

Total: 15 rWAR. 70 HR, .994 OPS. .300 BA, 14.9 fWAR

That's really close, and outside of walks Vlad actually would have the better HR rate, similar strike out rate, and a better batting average. Soto walks a lot more though.

In the end it's where negotiation is tough because Vlad would 100% see himself as a direct comparable to Soto and want the same deal.

Where the Jays are thinking he's not in the same echelon of player.

In the end I still think part of the problem here is the Jays (and some of the fans) hyperfocusing on Vladdy's flaws, especially with the two poor seasons, because they just watch him every day.

Soto has similar flaws, but gets a bit more forgiveness for it, when at their top end their potential to be elite is quite similar. Soto has just shown it more consistently.

So if they Jays were willing to offer $700M for Soto, then realistically they should have been willing to offfer $600M for Vlad.

There's a high chance he's the best FA out there next year and the big teams come out to pay him. Arguably Soto should not have been paid that crazy money last year, though I suspect there's a thought that elite players are so much better than star players and they should be paid as such, hence the crazy overpay. We'll have endless debate if Vlad is in that stratosphere, but I'd put my money on him getting minimum $550M, whether or not Cohen is involved. The market has changed since Ohtani.


Personally I don't think anyone is worth these prices, and I'm glad they lost out on both Ohtani and Soto. Those contracts are going to sink those teams later on. Vlad, despite playing a lot, is not going to age fit.