Quote:
Originally Posted by devo22
we're picking in the 20s (as of now) ... if McQueen happened to slide that far (he won't), you race to the podium. Especially since we're double dipping in the second half of the first round. Easily worth the risk.
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I guess you could look at it as a gamble worth taking. At that point in the draft, let’s say you have a 60-70% chance of any other player being a regular NHLer but a really low chance (say 5%) of that player turning into a star player in the league… and let’s say it’s an even lower chance of that player becoming a #1 center (say 1%). With a boom/bust prospect like McQueen, it might skew the percentages to something like this:
40% chance he’s a regular NHLer
15% chance he’s a star player
5% chance he’s a #1 center.
Increased odds with his injuries that he may never become an NHLer at all but, in the event he recovers properly from his injuries and he gets his development back on track, he might have a better chance than most players picked in that range of becoming a star player or even a #1 center.
You imagine there will also be some really safe prospects in that range whose odds of becoming a regular NHLer are closer to 80% but their chances of ever being a star player are more like 2%.