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Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan
If Freeland was the candidate I would agree. But if it's Carney and he can distance himself enough from JT a lot of people will vote for him.
PP was a huge leader in the polls because he wasn't JT. That's it. Now that safety net of blaming him for everything and running against him is gone a lot of the support he may have received before is dwindling because PP is a smug, arrogant man. His entire schtick is blaming somebody else for everything. It's boring. And his dumb little nicknames and phrases turn a lot of people off.
I'm not sure who will win, but at the very least, if Carney is the candidate it will be close. No landslide victory for the CPC anymore. And it's mostly due to just how unlikeable PP is.
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I agree especially that this is no longer a cakewalk, but if the bolded was true, Singh / NDP would have siphoned off most of the Liberal support as they once did in 2011. We would have also seen a shift in the polls after Trudeau resigned and Carney announced his leadership bid which was not the case.
Many Canadians rightfully had a major beef with how Liberal / NDP governed and still have that beef.
This is mostly about the Trump effect and that Poilievre hasn't completely denounced them (Musk endorsed Poilievre for example). Canadians generally associate CPC with Republicans and fear he would do the same or sell out Canada (even if he has not done such). Canadians are very angry right now, have mostly united in their hate for the US and they now think Carney would do a better job than Poilievre would at facing this threat (perhaps in part thanks to some great speeches / retaliatory action by Trudeau). Carney has presented himself as moving Liberal to the right, criticized the far left, and at this point, CPC has been quite unsuccessful in their Just Like Trudeau slogan. Carbon tax is just no longer the #1 priority right now, and with Carney campaigning on axing the consumer carbon tax and on focusing on cutting spending, Poilievre just lost most of his sail while the focus is on how do we protect ourselves against the US. Carney could easily pass as a CPC member without the social right wing in the way.
I do not see any of this play out as it has if Harris won the election, which is why I cannot attribute it to this being solely about Trudeau.
Images like this and slogan were never in the plans a month ago.
Carney is in this new freshener honeymoon phase that Harris experienced when everyone flocked to her...once she started talking though and would make no changes from the Biden administration, while backing the US policy on Israel she lost the momentum fast. This is likely why there is rumours that Carney is now talking of a snap election from the Liberal perspective to give the best chance selling him as a newcomer with new policies looking for a fresh mandate, while Canadians have largely forgotten what they were previously mad about as there are much bigger issues at hand. Get the election done now before CPC has a time to pivot and before Carney has time to get himself in trouble (he supports the century initiative, expansion of embedded carbon pricing). I do totally blame the CPC / Poilievre for the mess they created themselves and not paying attention to the tirefire down south that would try to take us over. I just don't see it as simple as Canadians are tired of hearing Poilievre or that this was just about Trudeau.