Quote:
Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14
Ok can you show me a commonly held definition for “luck” in terms of statistics? Without that settled it’s just discussing a vague platitude.
Personally I’m going with the quantifiable stat of win (or point) percentage of rested vs tired teams.
https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-bl...stedtired-b2b/ |
Pretty much whenever variance is in your favor. Like if you sit there gambling for an hour repeating the same bet and end up ahead of the expected outcome by any amount.
This is a good example of Baltimore having their runs distributed in almost an optimal pattern, which isn’t skill. It’s luck. They won a ton of close games and when they lost it was a blowout - exactly how you’d want your runs (or goals) distributed.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-orio...dom-variation/