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Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
There is no real analysis done on segments of games that I can find but you asked if there was anything that shows that rest matters and at some level this shows that.
I don't have the time or the care to go do it myself for segments of games.
But it's pretty easy to extrapolate that if rest is important in terms of the days directly before a game, that if a team over a segment of 10-15 days has substantially more rest, that they are going to have an advantage.
In the Leafs game the Leafs had more direct rest (2 days off) and much more rest over a longer period. It was the Leafs 4th game in 10 days, compared to the Flames 6th game in 10 days.
One of those teams is going to have more energy.
In tonight's game it's more even for sure. Both teams had one day rest. But it was the Flames 6th game in 10 days, compared to the Avs 5 game in 10 days.
So not as much of a difference as the Leafs game but it's compounding a bit for the Flames this point. Generally NHL teams get about 2.2 days rest between games, this last stretch for the Flames is 1.67 days between games with 9 games in 15 days.
To me it was pretty obvious these last two games the Flames looked tired. Didn't have the legs to win races, uncharacteristic mental mistakes that generally happen with fatigue, and even the frustration teammates were showing generally comes with fatigue.
And it's not even really an excuse, it's part of a season and every team goes through it at some point but when looking at their performance these last two games it would be foolish to ignore that the schedule has at least some impact.
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I also think that in addition to an energy deficit, tired players also lose mental focus. When you’re tired, your shooting percentage probably drops, because you are less focused, slower, and don’t have the extra energy to put into a move or shot. You’re also more likely to make mistakes and less likely to be able to recover from them. A tired team probably has a significant PDO advantage, even if the advanced stats are similar.