Quote:
Originally Posted by butterfly
Since every team plays the same number of games over the same amount of time, why don't we temper our excitement about a win in an advantageous rest situation when we excuse our disappointment about a loss in a disadvantageous rest situation?
The article you linked showed that 3+ days advantage is actually worse than 3+ days disadvantage. So it isn't about rest, exclusively, assuming n is statistically significant in the analysis. No data provided; simply charts.
Flames have won 5 out of their last 11 games and 21 out of the prior 43 this season. It isn't any anomaly.
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Over the long stretch it all tends to even out for sure, every team plays 82 games over the course of about 180 days in the course of a season. Every team will have stretches that are more compressed and stretches that are more rested.
But when looking at these last 2 games specifically, and the performance in those two games, I think it can be shown that fatigue is a factor.
9 games in a 15 day stretch is not a normal body of work for an NHL team. They might still lose both these games even if they are rested - the Leafs and Avs are better teams.
But when looking at the actual performance in the games themselves and how the team looked to me it seems like fatigue is a factor and that would be a factor of the compressed schedule.
For this team it's probably more of a factor because they do lack elite talent and need to play an almost perfect game to win most nights. Lack of talent + fatigue + patchwork d-core is not a good recipe for success.