Quote:
Originally Posted by Just a guy
The math guy in me wonders how much the top lines play (assume it is ~35% of TOI). If that is the case wouldn't you expect to play 35% against them organically?
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No. To use the same numbers (for simplicity and clarity), let's say the opposing top line plays 35% of the time, and the defensive pairing in question also plays 35% of the time, they could theoretically play 100% of their time against the top line. And they can play anywhere from 100% down to 0%, depending on how the coach is running the matchups.
But there is also a second side to this equation, which doesn't get discussed or considered enough: it isn't just a question of who they are getting matched up
against, it also matters which forward line they are playing
with. If you're the best defensive pair in the league, but you're out on the ice with the fourth line, who is struggling, your numbers are probably going to suck.
I've said it 100 times on here - situation matters. For small sample sizes of stats, situation is EVERYTHING.