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Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent
Sure, but at the same time I don't see Trump as being the type that's able to keep his real intentions under wraps if there was a specific ulterior motive that required such outlandish smoke and mirrors.
I think there's an equally good chance that he's doing things for the sake of doing them and running with narratives he made up or heard from someone in his inner circle and is finding out the consequences along the way.
We may be overestimating the method to the madness.
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I do believe his real intentions are to reduce the US trade deficit. I listened to a speech about three weeks ago from a guy that was formerly chief of staff for McConnell and still works in DC. He stated that there was widespread consensus on both sides of the aisle that globalisation has not been an overall positive for the average American worker. And so there is this general sentiment to bring jobs back to the US. Which is hard for me to really understand since the unemployment rate is so low. People have jobs. But that's what he said.
Anyway tariffs would at some point bring some jobs back, but not to the overall benefit of the economy or the average American IMO.
But for the sake or argument let's say that tariffs in the long run would help America (not my view). Trump does not have the discipline to follow through on a policy that would cause such short term pain and economic disruption. He does not have the spine for it. At the heart of it, he is a populist, self interested politician who does not stand on principle.
Which is why today's result was relatively predictable.
He will rattle his sabre. Make threats and take some actions to be sure but long term conviction is not his thing. So Canadian and Mexican leaders just need to tread carefully and play the game wisely.