Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
Here's how this plays out
Things go sideways within days because both sides will see some real hurt in some loud constituencies.
After 4 or 5 days both sides will claim some sort of pyrrhic victory. Trump claiming he got Canada to agree to something they didn't but no one will follow up. Canada will claim they showed resolve and will continue to strengthen their partnership with their most important ally.
Some longer term unknowable crap implications will continue to affect some vulnerable sectors and the news will shift to something else that destroys Western cohesion
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I don't know if it will be that quick, I think we're going to be talking weeks to months, of both governments digging in because, and this is jaded me saying it. Most governments don't give two craps about the ordinary person going through hell.
Both sides will dig in, the Liberals will return to parliament and attempt to pass a monstrous and uncontrollable spending bill. The NDP will support it because looking at fundraising numbers by party, damn.
The passing bill will pass. Trump will up the ante and find a way to increase the pressure. Canada will pull the levels on 2nd and 3rd level tariffs.
I expect at some point that the Libs will fall in aug, or Sept. The new government will come in, and push for a summit with Trump. At that point the 1.4 that we are going to spend on the border will go from a 3 year costed to a right the F now spend, and that the Government will commit in writing to Trump that defence spending will hit 2% by 12/31/2026, Trump will give up a concession, maybe better border patrols dealing with gun and drug smuggling IDK. Trump and the new government will announce a gradual reduction in the Tarrifs ending when all conditions are met.
By nature, I think 70% of our exports go to the States, and I think, I think about 20% of US exports go to Canada. So we are in a fairly leverless position, because our economy orbits the American Economy.