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Old 01-27-2025, 11:19 PM   #987
Sylvanfan
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I did some projections based on each teams remaining schedule, their home or road winning percentage to date, their opponents home or road winning percentage and the average number of points being awarded per game played in the league.

I have Calgary projected at 91.3 points finishing 8th and Vancouver finishing 9th at 89.6 after tonight's game. Colorado projects to 95.6, Minnesota to 97.5. Kings project at 99 due to their home record and number of home games left. Utah and St.Louis are 83.3 and 82.

Obviously a flawed method, but it does account for points at the time of last game plus dynamic values for other teams based on their results to date and how teams have been at home vs on the road. For example Winnipeg being a strong home team vs Calgary being a weak road team last night had the Jets with a 1.32 expected points to the Flames 0.78. If both teams were .500 point percentage each team would have 1.05 projected points.

In the last 7 games this expected the Flames to get 7.05 points, they actually got 8. In the next 8 it currently projects 9.55. I'll see how close this ends up coming.

I have average game awarding 2.1 points so far. Eerily close to 1 in 10 games going to OT this year.
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Last edited by Sylvanfan; 01-28-2025 at 08:45 AM.
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