Quote:
Originally Posted by BoLevi
Do people even pay attention to polling any more? Polymarket is better.
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Better at what?
And how do you document better. Predicting the outcome does not mean better. Being right and wrong at the % you predict is the measure of accuracy. Has someone gone through and evaluated this based on odds overtime to determined the accuracy?
In terms of Canadian politics the market is too small and the questions are poor right now to glean the information I am looking for. Also people are bad at long tails
So you have this bet here
https://polymarket.com/event/next-pr...=1737648889597
The challange here is that you have to pick between Carney and Freeland and you don’t have historical data before Carney is running for Carney. But it does show that the conservative likelihood of winning down 8% from peak
https://polymarket.com/event/will-th...=1737649112582
Then you have this one on will conservatives with the majority of seats. (Doesn’t factor in coalitions)
Down 5%
https://polymarket.com/event/which-p...=1737649369014
And then you have wins the most seats
https://polymarket.com/event/which-p...=1737649369014
The problem with all of these is that they will swing rapidly once it becomes possible whereas today we are looking at signals of monmentum. Like a 5-10% move in polling doesn’t really move the polymarket numbers because of how far behind the liberals are. So then you have to look at very small changes in polymarket.
The question I want to answer is have people’s opinions about the liberals have changed and given that they were so far behind this won’t show up very well in polymarket.
But I did buy Liberal stock as it’s undervalued right now and will go up as the leadership race continues.