[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Andy83

First, your most powerful chip only has power if your opponent truly believes it is a chip you might or even can play. Now, of course its pure speculation either way, no one outside Trump and his closest advisors (maybe even just him, advisors probably rarely know what he's going to do either) know the answer to this. I tend to lean on the side that he doesn't believe it's even a possibility we put this chip in the middle. I doubt he picks this fight if he believes it is a possibility (again, clearly speculation). Call him what you will, he knows with this particular item, any pain felt by them will be felt by us, and very likely much more damaging to us. Lack of infrastructure on both sides of an alternate supply line, are likely (and on our side definitely) not in place. While the economic impact in terms of actual dollars would be probably 2x-3x worse for the US, its MUCH easier/faster for them to replace our supply, than it is for us to replace their market. I use the terms easier and faster very loosely as nothing about it is easy or fast in either case. Even if you don't go down the worst case scenario, we apply an export tax, and the US cuts its Canadian O&G imports, to any degree, the impact seen here would be immense. Jobs lost, a weak economy gets even weaker, there is a good case for the dollar to slip even further (amazing thats even possible), on and on. Its a terrible idea. But I understand you are talking more about the idea of using it, not actually doing it. I think threatening something you cant follow through on, even if your opponent has no read on if you can/will, is extremely foolish.
-snip-

I just want to say I think this is far more thought than Trump has ever put into the "concept of a plan" for tariffs. We aren't negotiating with rationality or positions derived from facts.