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Jason14h · 01-15-2025, 07:28 AM

The biggest issue is a non top 5 (really even top 3) pick usually doesnt play for a few seasons.

A non top 10 pick usually doesnt play for 3-5 seasons

Look at the Flames impact youth draft year

Zary - 2020
Coronato - 2021
Pelletier - 2019
Wolf - 2019
Bahl - 2018

So while it is great we are finally getting a surplus of picks, the reality is we are looking at 5 years down the road for impact, and probably 6-7 until they are a top 2 line players

There is also the problem very few non top picks turn out. When you get to 15th overall and later first rounders you are looking at a 33% chance to even play 500 games (15th pick) to ~25% chance on picks 25-32 (Picks we trade for as an example)

https://thehockeywriters.com/success...l-draft-picks/

This is why teardowns take 10 years - It takes 5 years for the next wave of reinforcements to all mature and even start making an impact in the league

So we have to assume we are going to miss on 1/2 of our own picks (If we are drafting 15thish), and 1/4 of our traded picks and that these players will take ~5 years to even start making any impact when we look at where we will end up. You WANT to do better then the average - but if your strategy is "Just draft and develop better then everyone" - I have news - That's everyones strategy

In 5 years this is the age of our players

Backlund 40
Coleman 38
JH: 36
Kadri - 39
Sharangovich - 31
Andersson - 34
Weegar - 36

That is a TON of talent you need to replace that is aged out (or about to age out) with the up and coming player JUST to get to the point we are at today.

To me - This is why not tearing down is just going to prolong the pain. You might be more competitive over the next 5 years with these guys, but your arent getting even more excess assets to try and replace them.

If you have enough excess assets in 5 years, you can trade for the next Eichel, Stone, Petterson (rumored), etc who is getting traded at that time because you have what teams are looking for in these trades.

Having 2 extra 1st round picks and a few later rounds isn't getting you the asset class to replace the aging out players, and trade for top line talent.

This is also why finishing last or winning the lottery is important. Having to trade 3 good assets for an Eichel is a lot more expensive then drafting one asset wise.

And you can even.... Do both and have multiple superstars.

But the time to do this was the offseason. Now we are actually playing amazing for our talent base, have no real path to getting multiple superstars, and will push this pain out multiple years until the aging out players have no value (Leaving out NTC's as who knows where a player is willing to go/how they handcuff the team)

So apart from a real honest how do we get great strategy? I guess drag this out, hope 3 of our mid round drafted guys become superstars, and the Wolf is Marty Brodeur

01-15-2025, 07:28 AM	#26
Jason14h Franchise Player Join Date: Oct 2005 Exp:	The biggest issue is a non top 5 (really even top 3) pick usually doesnt play for a few seasons. A non top 10 pick usually doesnt play for 3-5 seasons Look at the Flames impact youth draft year Zary - 2020 Coronato - 2021 Pelletier - 2019 Wolf - 2019 Bahl - 2018 So while it is great we are finally getting a surplus of picks, the reality is we are looking at 5 years down the road for impact, and probably 6-7 until they are a top 2 line players There is also the problem very few non top picks turn out. When you get to 15th overall and later first rounders you are looking at a 33% chance to even play 500 games (15th pick) to ~25% chance on picks 25-32 (Picks we trade for as an example) https://thehockeywriters.com/success...l-draft-picks/ This is why teardowns take 10 years - It takes 5 years for the next wave of reinforcements to all mature and even start making an impact in the league So we have to assume we are going to miss on 1/2 of our own picks (If we are drafting 15thish), and 1/4 of our traded picks and that these players will take ~5 years to even start making any impact when we look at where we will end up. You WANT to do better then the average - but if your strategy is "Just draft and develop better then everyone" - I have news - That's everyones strategy In 5 years this is the age of our players Backlund 40 Coleman 38 JH: 36 Kadri - 39 Sharangovich - 31 Andersson - 34 Weegar - 36 That is a TON of talent you need to replace that is aged out (or about to age out) with the up and coming player JUST to get to the point we are at today. To me - This is why not tearing down is just going to prolong the pain. You might be more competitive over the next 5 years with these guys, but your arent getting even more excess assets to try and replace them. If you have enough excess assets in 5 years, you can trade for the next Eichel, Stone, Petterson (rumored), etc who is getting traded at that time because you have what teams are looking for in these trades. Having 2 extra 1st round picks and a few later rounds isn't getting you the asset class to replace the aging out players, and trade for top line talent. This is also why finishing last or winning the lottery is important. Having to trade 3 good assets for an Eichel is a lot more expensive then drafting one asset wise. And you can even.... Do both and have multiple superstars. But the time to do this was the offseason. Now we are actually playing amazing for our talent base, have no real path to getting multiple superstars, and will push this pain out multiple years until the aging out players have no value (Leaving out NTC's as who knows where a player is willing to go/how they handcuff the team) So apart from a real honest how do we get great strategy? I guess drag this out, hope 3 of our mid round drafted guys become superstars, and the Wolf is Marty Brodeur Last edited by Jason14h; 01-15-2025 at 07:32 AM.