Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
Think both guys still have some upside...Cozens is 4 months younger so it's not he's at the end of his leash.
But some of the underlying numbers might show Pinto having a bit more "bad luck" that's deflating his counting numbers and could benefit from a change of scenary.
If we look at their last three seasons then Cozens has the better counting stats:
Cozens: 136 points in 202 games, 0.67 p/gp
Pinto: 72 points in 155 games, 0.46 p/gp
But when you look at the underlying numbers then Pinto looks like more of a play driver at 5v5.
Cozens: 49.1% xGF, 0.66 xGF% Relative, 9.19% on ice shooting %, .906 on ice save %, 0.998 PDO
Pinto: 53.3% xGF, 3.63% xGF% Relative, 7.04% on ice shooting %, .901 on ice save %, 0.971 PDO
Senators tend to be a much better team with Pinto on the ice (53.1% xGF) than with him off the ice (49.7% xGF).
For the Sabres Cozens doesn't really move the needle (49.1% xGF on ice vs 48.6% off ice).
So based on contract, and if you're looking for more of a "buy low" candidate then Pinto is probably the better bet for sure.
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Play drivers are what we need, especially with a center. Thanks for finding those numbers.
Pinto probably comes cheaper as well, and if he tops out at 40 points or mid 30's we are not paying him 7.1M. With Cozens, I feel like he tops out at 40 points and you are stuck paying a 3rd liner 7.1M.
Other thing is faceoffs, I don't think people put enough value on faceoffs but Craig does it was in the article. Not just 5v5 but special teams, winning a draw on the PK you kill 15 seconds right away and now the PP is trying to reenter the zone and face a set defence.