Can the Flames become a contender without tanking?
I wanted to see the approximate probability of landing a franchise player without tanking. A large percentage of the board feels like the Flames need to tank to get a couple superstars and another large percentage feel like you can find franchise players throughout the draft.
Deciding who classifies as a franchise player is subjective but I put together a quick list. If I missed someone obvious apologies ahead of time because I did this pretty quick. Even if you add in a few extra guys I feel the percentages are likely still very similar.
I skipped the last 5 drafts because I figure players take time to develop so those years might skew the results. I looked at the 20 year span from 1999-2019
2019: Jack Hughes (1)
2018: Quinn Hughes (7), Brady Tkachuk (4), Rasmus Dahlin (1)
2017: Cale Makar (4), Elias Petterson (5), Nico Hischier (1), Jason Robertson (39)
2016: Auston Matthews (1), Matthew Tkachuk (6)
2015: Connor McDavid (1), Mikko Rantanen (10), Kirill Kaprizov (135), Jack Eichel (2), Mitch Marner (4), Sebastian Aho (35), Kyle Connor (17)
2014: Leon Draisaitl (3), David Pastrnak (25), Brayden Point (79), Sam Reinhart (2), William Nylander (8)
2013: Nathan Mackinnon (1), Alexander Barkov (2)
2012: None
2011: Nikita Kucherov (58), Gabriel Landeskog (2), JT Miller (15)
2010: Mark Stone (178), Evgeny Kuznetsov (26), Tyler Seguin (2)
2009: John Tavares (1), Victor Hedman (2)
2008: Steven Stamkos (1), Roman Josi (38), Drew Doughty (2), Alex Pietrangelo (4), Erik Karlsson (15), John Carlson (27)
2007: Patrick Kane (1), Jamie Benn (129)
2006: Jonathon Towes (3), Nicklas Backstrom (4), Claude Giroux (22), Phil Kessel (5), Brad Marchand (71)
2005: Sidney Crosby (1), Anze Kopitar (11)
2004: Alex Ovechkin (1), Evgeni Malkin (2)
2003: Shea Weber (49), Eric Stall (2), Patrice Bergeron (45), Ryan Getzlaf (19), Corey Perry (28), Joe Pavelski (205)
2002: Rick Nash (1), Duncan Keith (54),
2001: Jason Spezza (2), Ilya Kovalchuk (1)
2000: Marina Gaborik (3), Dany Heatley (2)
1999: Daniel Sedin (2), Henrik Sedin (3), Henrik Zetterberg (210)
Top 5 pick: 36 players out of 100 picks = 36%
6-10 pick: 4/100 = 4%
11-31 pick: 10/420 = 2.38%
2nd round pick: 7/620 = 1.13%
3rd round pick: 3/620 = 0.48%
Beyond the 3rd round: 5/2640 = 0.19%
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