Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames
I think economic collapse will come for Russia. We won't see a 1917 style revolution, but Putin's power comes from his ability to keep the oligarchs rich.
If this war tanks the economy, they will have no use for him and there will be a regime change (might be violent, might not be).
The new regime won't give a #### about Donbas/Crimea, and Ukraine should be able to retake it.
This scenario might take years to play out though.
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One thing always in the back of mind is if the war ends quickly, what happens when the hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers return (and that have already returned) to Russia and try to adapt back to civilian life. There are going to be a lot of young, under or unemployed trained fighters returning to a shattered economy, many of who only signed up for the money to begin with. It's not that uncommon for soldiers to return from a long war and become angry with their own country or don't have the support to adjust to a civilian life.
It's exactly the kind of thing that breeds unrest, homegrown terrorism, and potentially revolution. Especially the ones from minority regions that already have anti-government organizations, or if Putin were to die soon leaving a power vacuum. Even the soldiers returning from Vietnam to the U.S. combined with the social climate created from the war, caused some pretty big societal and cultural changes, and I feel the Ukraine was could have a similar effect on Russia. Many will really start to wonder what was the point.
I know this borders on writing fan fiction, but I can see a situation where an end to the war in Ukraine, even with terms more favourable to Russia, brings a lot of baggage back to Russia. I can visualize a situation where Putin actually gets overthrown and the new government is willing to make some amends with the West in exchange for full sanctions relief and financial support (or straight up bribes). They are largely silenced at the moment, but there are anti-Putin people in Russia and I would not be surprised if many more come out of the shadows if the political climate allows for it. Territories in Ukraine could be used as a bargaining chip if that were to happen. I believe the Trump plan only says that Russia will be allowed to occupy the areas of Ukraine it holds, but not that those areas will become recognized as Russia (I could be wrong, but I thought that is how it was worded).
I don't know man, I know I am speculating and writing scripts in my head, but I suspect that even if the war in Ukraine ends, the table top war is far from over.