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Originally Posted by Cowboy89
It's in all Canadian's best interests to negotiate a carve out and there will for sure be Canadian government representatives 'negotiating' with the Trump administration. That said with a lame duck Prime Minister they have zero leverage or practical ability to meaningfully negotiate. Anything that requires a vote in parliament cannot be offered up. Any trade countermeasures that require any provincial cooperation that would actually hurt the US back will be tougher to manage with a lame duck leader in place.
There's little incentive for the US to do anything but collect tariffs while waiting for a government who has a real mandate to show up. 50% of the trade deficit is in Oil and Gas and the US are an oil exporter. A 25% tariff is likely to mostly be absorbed by Canadian producers and strand the marginal barrel in Canada and place a majority of the impact on Canadians rather than US consumers at US gas pumps.
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Well, I suppose, at the end of the day, we're at the mercy of the US anyway. If Trump really wants to eliminate the trade deficit, it doesn't matter who's negotiating.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacks
Love the spin that this is somehow a good thing for negotiating with the US. Our "team" will probably not have anyone who will be running in the leadership race or anyone who has already walked out on Trudeau. They will also not be able to negotiate anything that requires a vote in Parliament such as creating new legislation or spending new dollars. Also, anything they do or say will be taken with a huge grain of salt by the Trump administration because it's likely to change in a matter of months after the election that is now all but certain in the Spring. Nothing about this is good for Canada, it's all about the Liberals as usual.
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I'm not trying to suggest this is a great positive; it's just that there will still be talks and negotiations. I think for the Liberals there is an added incentive to try to get something done, but that doesn't necessarily translate into anything.