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Originally Posted by bizaro86
I'm very interested in this. Judge got $360MM. I don't think it's debatable that he's better than Vladdy. He hits better and plays a way more important position defensively. I also don't think the market has actually changed that much. Some teams have way less revenue because of TV deal issues (eg Padres) that will hurt their ability to bid.
I think Ohtani was a one-off because he's two-way and a generational superstar. Then Cohen was pissed at missing out last year so decided to get the #1 guy this year no matter what. I don't think those factors will be in play next year quite as much.
The one thing Vladdy does have in his favour is he's younger than Judge was. He'll be 27 when his FA contract starts vs Judge at nearly 31. I think if he goes anywhere other than the Mets it's like 12 years/$450MM max.
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Just my thought. Nobody thought Soto was getting more than Ohtani a few months ago. The Mets were intent on getting him, like you said, but there were others who bid close to that price to get it that high. Vlad may not be as good but he’s not half the player those guys are. He’s IMO, 85% if anything, and maybe more. It’s completely debatable but he’s young and has shown what he can do. To me there’s a 90% chance he goes for more than $500 if he hits the market. There are a lot of teams who would be in the mix at that range, where only a few could get to $700 for the other two.