Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePrince
Talking to people much more educated than I am on the energy landscape and the flows, at least on the oil side, there doesn't appear to be any belief that Trump could put in tariffs. The refineries in the US need Canadian crude for blending purposes and tariffs on Canadian crude would cause a lot of issues at the refineries, so they don't think it's a realistic possibility.
We'll see what happens when push comes to shove, it's not like Trump hasn't tried to do stupid stuff before. But my belief is that a lot of this tariff talk is just to put him in a better negotiating position, and he fully understands that many of these tariffs are not going to happen. It's all just a game to him and how he can feel like he's coming out on top, even if he really isn't.
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That’s what I think as well. A 25% tariff would shut in all production. Which would decrease supply. Which would raise prices on american consumers. Which would shift voter sentiment. Which would force the end of tariffs with zero net gain.
Makes no sense. Maybe some small wins but north American industry is so intertwined the tariffs would do a lot of damage here but it would do just as much damage in the states in my opinion. Unless they could replace our products in-house. Which I don’t think they would be able to do.
Either way it’s probably time for canada to start diversifying their trading partners. That should have happened a long time ago. For the energy industry in particular that would mean LNG and crude offload facilities on each coast and displacing foriegn oil suppliers in the east with western canadian volumes.
Canadians are lazy when it comes to trading their goods. We should be more deversified. Trump is shining a light on that.