Right now, You need the CPC + NDP + 8 or CPC + BQ + 1 to take down the government.
For the NDP. it's hard to say what they are thinking, the could think that a looming CPC/PP government is worse than what we have now. They could be thinking with the Liberals completely collapsing they have a shot a big Jack Layton style 100 seat election (I personally doubt it). Probably their best case is that they break hard with government, but BQ props the government up for a couple of months, so they can run as a light red option.
CPC obviously will win the next election, with a likely majority right now. so their worst case is upgrading from opposition to minority, but they will likely do better than that. No Brainer.
The Bloc, it likely to return to 90s level 40+ seat counts, if the only real opposition in Quebec is the CPC, so an election would be good for them. But they might exercise more power now with 75% of the seats, but as the only party propping the government up. So weird thing could happen here.
I have no opinion on the other 6 but they aren't that critical in the math either way.
Personally I think it's more likely than not we see an election called before summer, I just don't know if it is the moment or not, the NPDs letter makes the most sense if they thing the Bloc will stall on the election.
For me the most interesting question is will Trudeau gain enough clarity in being pushed out to decline to run. It's probably the best case for the Liberals and for the Country, but still might not make a huge difference.
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