Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
I think part of the problem is this team's probably already picked a lane and that lane is going to be a 12-18th OV pick with how things sit right now:
15: Flames - .563 (18th OV pick based on points percentage ignoring conference breakdown, 16th if consider the Flames would draft before the 2 Eastern conference playoff teams they are ahead of in the standings)
Bottom 10: Seattle - .485
So I think the number that's been the floor for Bottom 10 most of this season has been .480 / 78 points .
With 50 games remaining at this point and 36 points actually accumulated, the Flames can only get 42 points / .420 points percentage the rest of the season to safely be bottom 10.
Which looks more realistic than it did even 20 days ago due to going 3-5-3 in their last 11 games (.409 point percentage) but it also shows how hard it's going to be to get below that .420 threshold the rest of the season because in these last 11 games they had a 4 game losing streak, are rocking a .962 PDO (9.5 shooting percentage / .867 save percentage) and they are still just barely below that threshold.
|
I think that coaches and players have (and should always) picked the playoffs lane. I am also glad that Conroy demands this out of the team.
However, I think Conroy has picked the Hagens lane (or not quite that far down, but the plan was the bottom of the standings). Lots of cap space, no signings or trades in the off-season that really moved the needle. No in-season trades to try and improve the roster so far. Someone brought up a good point not that long ago in another thread - there aren't that many pieces to move before it is a complete tear-down. What's left before it is a scorched-earth rebuild, really? We may see a load-bearing wall get knocked down by the deadline with a potential Andersson trade.
Arizona drafted Tij Iginla at 6th (well, Utah I guess), but they were in a playoff spot last season around Christmas IIRC. I think that the bottom teams have all taken a step forward too - not massive moves, but I think the same number of points this year vs last year might mean 2-3 spots up the draft, everything being relative. Buffalo is in an absolute freefall, and Nashville has been a big surprise down there, so we have to see where everyone ends up, but I am betting that 5th this year will be more points than 5th last year.
I agree with Enoch - once the Flames fall out of a playoff spot, and a couple of other teams push their way between the Flames, then there is a good chance for this team to free fall harder than they did last year, with a longer runway to do so. The Flames are winning games mostly by effort, but that consistent effort is going to be harder to reproduce game in and game out when the wins aren't coming and the playoffs look unlikely.
Who knows what will really happen, but I do think that the Flames can finish bottom 5 in the standings still, and it is likely that they finish around that spot, give or take a couple of spots. Who knows, however? If they can string a few more wins together, it can start to snowball for them again the positive way, and they may make me look like an even bigger buffoon than I do usually. lol That's the fun part about sports - the unpredictability of things.
As for tonight's game - Ottawa - Calgary games are usually fun. Ottawa is desperate to turn their franchise around, but are really only treading water. I expect them to play hard, but if the Flames score first, that may be enough to just send the Sens belly-up for tonight. They strike me as a group that is ready to collapse.