Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Not sure I agree.
That's taken into account by expected goals against.
It could get better, but it's objective.
If Calgary's team defense (or defensemen) are worse than the rest of the league, the Calgary goaltenders would have their expected goals against rise, meaning they could give up more actual goals and still be flat in goals saved above average.
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This is where I think you're wrong, and is exactly what we're arguing against - the stat takes into account location and situation (to an extent), but it cannot take into account the quality of the situation. Team defense can be weak by being poor positionally (which would get captured somewhat), but they can also be weak by being slow, or simply allowing shooters too much time. Same shooter, same place, same 'circumstance', but if the shooter has more time, they are getting off a better quality shot. The stats do not capture this (and other similar things).
The fundamental question is: does this all average out, or are some teams more prone to it? And I don't think there's any question that some teams are more prone to it.