Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Expected goals models account for location and circumstance.
If you give up shots from the home plate off of rebounds, deflections and passes that cross the royal road you get a high danger event and a greater % chance of a goal. A shot from the same location without the deflection, rebound or pass are just a scoring chance and are assigned a lower goal value. Outside the home plate than moves down accordingly with distance and angle.
So it definitely takes into account what a team defense gives up.
The quality of the shooter is unique and can't be accounted for, but it's not like the Flames defenseman are playing in a different league. If one division has all sputtering offences you may see a weighting issue on a season for sure, but I'm not sure that's the case.
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I’ve never been convinced that circumstance has or even can be accounted for with accuracy. The point is that the Flames D doesn’t play against different players. But they may allow different things. Other teams’ D have different players with different strengths. So the most accurate comparison for Wolf is Vladar and not Skinner.