Quote:
Originally Posted by GioforPM
It depends on what the particular defence allows because the stat doesn’t account for quality of shot and shooter. A good D may allow a lot of shots and shot attempts, even in the “good” locations but in reality the shots might not be as dangerous. Or they can be like Calgary two years ago and stifle shots unless they are breakaways and two on ones to the opposition’s best players.
|
Expected goals models account for location and circumstance.
If you give up shots from the home plate off of rebounds, deflections and passes that cross the royal road you get a high danger event and a greater % chance of a goal. A shot from the same location without the deflection, rebound or pass are just a scoring chance and are assigned a lower goal value. Outside the home plate than moves down accordingly with distance and angle.
So it definitely takes into account what a team defense gives up.
The quality of the shooter is unique and can't be accounted for, but it's not like the Flames defenseman are playing in a different league. If one division has all sputtering offences you may see a weighting issue on a season for sure, but I'm not sure that's the case.