Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache
This is where xGA gets silly.
Perfect pass by Stamkos and perfect tip. xGA contribution is probably about .2 but a shot placed there is pretty much going in 9 times out of 10 at least
Horrible defensive coverage leaves Novak all alone for a cross crease pass which is promptly shot in off the inside of the post. Shots from a similar situation, in that statistical bucket, include thousands of shots , many off the goalie’s pads, into his logo, etc. This one was off the inside of the far post. Shot placement isn’t considered in xGA but a shot placed there goes in closer to 9 times out of 10 than twice out of 10.
Similarly with Marchessault’s goal. Perfectly executed
I’d give those 3 shots alone about 2.5 xGA, based on execution, and shot placement, never mind the contribution from the other 17 shots
|
Thanks for that explanation. I didn't know this, although I've always known that this was not reliable over a small sample size, and you've explained why.
But over a large sample size, I like it. Just not sure how large a sample size we really need.