I still think the Flames finish bottom 5. They are now only 6 points away. it is hardly some reach to think that they will lose more games than most teams under them right now. I don't see a team that has been built to win. There are also ZERO teams tanking right now - well, I guess with the exception of San Jose since they traded out Blackwood, but that's a trade they probably needed to make anyway when looking at their organizational structure right now.
Pittsburgh is the only team that I thought were about to rebuild, but they have been good. I don't think a rebuild happens while Sid is there. Everyone else is more at the tail end of their rebuilds - this bodes incredibly well for Calgary.
I don't see the need to argue so much about mushy middles and how many top picks and so on... the Flames have had a LOT of cap space and futures, and they did NOT build a good team. Their veteran signings were cheap darts at obtaining more picks at the deadline, not building a playoff team.
This team isn't as good as the 2015 Flames that so many people claim were "unsustainable". That team was miles better. They had a young Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, Ferland and Hudler leading the way. A prime Giordano and Wideman (people forget how good he was then too leading the league in minutes played while Giordano was out), and a 47 point Brodie. Flames only have Weegar and Rasmus this year, and it is likely that Rasmus gets traded.
This is a botom 5 team that has beaten expectations. You can't outwork everyone without enough talent. Last night was a great example - Flames out-work Dallas and had the game tied after 40 minutes. In the third, Dallas simply decided to be better, and beat the Flames in 10 minutes.
Wolf is good - and I bet he will only get better (and so has Vladar - also very good!) - but neither of them are a goalie in their prime and regularly stealing games. Markstrom was better last season with how many games he stole IMO. Season before that he was a disappointment, but he sure was a great goalie last season. Wolf isn't turning this team's fortunes around (at least not yet).
As for "tanking" and so on - it does work. It isn't the only way to go about it, but it certainly does work. Oilers without McDavid would be laughingstocks. Pittsburgh doesn't win without Crosby and Malkin. Chicago was a fantastic team at the draft, but no guarantee they win without Toews and Kane. Does Tampa win without Hedman and Stamkos? Doubtful.
Nothing is guaranteed, but it certainly takes you a step closer to being a contender when you have enough top-end talent on a team. You win cups by having that top-end talent AND a very deep supporting cast as well.
Why wasn't Calgary ever a contender (and no, they never were - nice regular season finishes mean squat to competing - competing for the cup or at least competing for the conference title makes you a contender, not a nice regular season win and getting embarrassed in the 2nd round)? Why weren't they a contender?
They weren't because Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk were a good enough top line to win, but they were missing an entire 2nd line. Backlund's line should have been an elite-level 3rd line. They were missing a layer. They also never had a #1 defencemen. Rasmus is becoming one right now, you can make an argument that Weegar might be one, but it was always Hanifin (a solid minute muncher but not a #1), Tanev (a great defensive player but not a #1), Andersson who was better on the 2nd pairing... Flames had a very solid defence, but nobody 'elite'. Nobody that came onto the ice and tilted it.
2015 they had that tilting pair in Giordano and Brodie. People forget how dominant that pairing really was both from the eye test and from an analytics point of view. That team had more jam, more youth in important places, and decent vets pushing them along too. This team doesn't have that quality. They will get that after this upcoming draft. That team also had more muscle.
The Flames finished 9th from the bottom last season. Are they better or worse on paper? I argue they are much worse on paper on the opening night roster this season than last season, and it isn't even close. Are the other teams at the bottom better or worse from that time-span? I would argue that practically every team is better. Who is worse?
Beyond this season, the next two drafts after this have two generational players back-to-back. Calgary won't be getting better. I just fear that the Pens will choose that time-frame to tank, or that the Oilers do as well with McDavid (potentially) leaving. No guarantee that you get McKenna or Dupont, but to be this close down the standings and NOT try? Seems a bit silly to me, no? McKenna could be worth 1 billion dollars to this organization as McDavid was to Edmonton in 2015 (that was the valuation for the club among some outlets that I remember). If that's true, it won't pass the sniff test for Murray to demand this team get better next season, if it is really true anyway that all he cares about is making money (and I don't think that's true).
Say what you will, but I still see a bottom 5 team this year, and then I would reevaluate them compared to other teams the following year after that.
One final note - I am sure happy that the Flames hired Conroy who (knock on wood) hasn't been swayed into making moves to support this team as they exceeded all expectations out of the gate. Those moves that Nashville made in hindsight have been atrocious. What do they do now? Change their plans back to rebuild after signing those deals? Trotz was a very, very elite-level coach, but he made a huge misstep early on in his GM career. I think that the investment that the Flames made in Conroy is paying off.
Anyway, I will be surprised if this team finishes outside the bottom 5. I will be absolutely shocked if they finish outside the bottom 10. I expect Andersson to be traded, and I will be surprised if they hang onto Kadri unless a reasonable deal is never put on the table (which may not be - Kadri's production vs age vs contract may be too much to move).
|