Quote:
Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois
The draft odds thing is misplaced. It’s not a roulette wheel. It’s not an objective process or an open system.
Teams can only take who is there. If it’s MacKinnon, awesome. If it’s nuge … meh. Yakapov anyone?
If your scouts ID Kuch or JG, awesome. If they want a boring stay at home D man, maybe you miss on that guy.
Is luck involved? Yes. Is probability? No. Unless you go full oiler and shoot for 100 top picks to prove the distribution curve. (Or buffalo, yikes).
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you mistaking odds and probability.
The probability of getting a star and superstar later in the draft drops significantly. You need 2 independent things to occur (Could argue 3)
1. The player with that potential falls to your pick
2. You identify the player correctly
3. (Arguable how much this actually influences) Develop correctly
If #1 doesn't/can't occur how good you are at #2 is doesn't matter. This is the problem the lower you pick. You might identify the star in the rough but what if hes picked at 8th overall? 10th? 17th? 28th? Doesn't help if we're picking 30th with florida's pick